Key Themes Shaping M&A’s Rebound in 2025

In the first quarter of 2025, global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is navigating economic volatility alongside opportunities for inorganic growth. Despite evolving geopolitical dynamics and ongoing headwinds, signs of a rebound are emerging across regions.

Global M&A outlook: resilience amid adjustments

As Wall Street banks report stronger earnings and the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, the stage is set for a resurgence in M&A. With the U.S. election in the rearview mirror and inflation easing in some countries, Intralinks predicts M&A can expect to see greater stability in the next 12 months.

The SS&C Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor for Q1 2025 suggests an increase in activity in the regions we track compared to Q1 2024. The SS&C Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor forecasts the volume of future M&A announcements by tracking early-stage M&A activity — sell-side M&A transactions across the world that are in preparation or have begun their due diligence stage. These early-stage deals staged on Intralinks’ platform are, on average, six months away from their public announcement.

Supporting this forecast is data from the Institute for Mergers and Acquisitions & Alliances that shows 752 deals, totaling USD 52.20 billion, were disclosed between January 6 and January 12, 2025 — a robust start to the new year. These deals include:

• Constellation Energy Corp., an American electric power and natural gas provider, announcing its USD 16.40 billion acquisition of Calpine Corporation, a large U.S. generator of electricity from natural gas and geothermal resources;
• Medical technology leader Stryker Corporation’s USD 4.90 billion acquiring Inari Medical, Inc., a mechanical thrombectomy devices builder; and
• Paychex Inc., a benefits, HR and payroll company, acquiring its competitor, Paycor HCM, for USD 4.1 billion.

Other significant deals include China's Alibaba agreeing to sell its majority stake in the hypermarket chain Sun Art Retail Group to DCP Capital, a Chinese private equity firm, for USD 1.58 billion and U.S. technology services company World Wide Technology’s announcement about acquiring fellow IT powerhouse Softchoice for USD 1.25 billion.

Growing confidence among dealmakers

According to the 2025 SS&C Intralinks Dealmakers Sentiment Report, dealmakers anticipate a surge in activity in the next 12 months. A significant 87 percent predict growth in M&A and financing activity in 2025, compared to 50 percent of respondents surveyed last year. Private equity (PE) firms display greater confidence in market opportunities as well, reflecting a more bullish market sentiment and economic recovery outlook.

Larger transactions are also on the horizon for 2025, with private equity firms showing strong confidence. Nearly half of PE respondents expect to engage in transformative deals exceeding USD 10 billion during this period.

Looking ahead

Deal timelines are expected to remain extended for the foreseeable future. While time kills all deals, leveraging AI-powered dealmaking solutions can help deal teams focus on strategic priorities and mitigate the risks associated with prolonged timelines. In a complicated environment, embracing these innovations is key to maintaining momentum and achieving successful outcomes.

For an in-depth analysis of expected global and regional M&A activity in the next six months, early-stage initial public offerings (IPOs) and restructurings, read our data-driven forecast in the SS&C Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor for Q1 2025 — available now.